Question for BruceZ (or others) regarding streaks

[irchans]

I agree, there are 901 windows. That changes the theoretical answer to 11.7447%.

For the Excel simulation, I agree that cell E1 should be =D1. In the other E cells I had max of cells D(i-1) and E(i-1) which I think works as well as your formula.

I reran the Excel simulation with your corrections. Among the 200,000 virtual deals there were 20,789 deals that had 14 pairs or more in a window. That simulation gives a 10.4% estimate of the probability. I wrote a simulator in Mathematica and got 22,545 deals with 14 pairs or more. That's 11.3%. Given the size of the simulations, either there is a bug one of the simulation programs and the theoretical derivation, or these random generators are not good enough. Hmm.