A hand with an odds question ...

[ragedyandy]

I have Ac9c on the button. An EP player raises. There are 4 callers to me and I call. Blinds fold. Flop comes J85r. No clubs. It’s checked around. Turn is 6c (no flush possible). Pre-flop raiser bets. 2 callers to me. So, there are nine big bets in the pot. I close the action and have a gutshot and an overcard. This gives me 7 outs. Obviously none of my outs are to the nut so I have to assign the probability of hitting one of my outs and having my hand hold up. I think any 7 is less diry than an ace. My thinking is that pfr could have AA, AK or JJ (all with reduced likelihood due to my ace and the J on board). He also may have been going for the check-raise on the flop. But all of the players could have a better ace then I do. I don’t think any of them have T9, but that’s an obvious concern. So, I have 7 outs with 2 degrees of dirtiness. There are 46 unseen cards. Odds of hitting one of my outs are ~1 in 6.6 and there are will be 10 Big bets in the pot if I call. How often do I fold, call, raise and why?

Also, I assume the probabilities one actually works with during this hand are arrived at through estimation - you basically take a SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) at it and go with your educated guess. Is that what you guys do or do some of you have the wear-with-all to mentally do something better?

In this hand I called and my card didn’t come. All folded to pfr’s bet.

All comments appreciated.