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Old 08-25-2005, 04:30 PM
wutevahung wutevahung is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 29
Default is this thinking ahead or just miscalculation?

so lets say i have a3 suited in a ring game, someone raised in front of me and i called, flop me 1 over card flush draw, the opponent bets, i raise, he goes all in, so i put him on an over pair, pretty reasonable right?

so lets count the outs
9 outs form flushdraw + 3 outs for the ace + runner runner 3 so 1 out= 13 outs

so since i called his raise, and i raised him, lets say 1/4 of my stack is gone and if i put him on an over pair, this might just be a coin flip. (or close to a coin flip) so i have to call anyway, but i am curious if what i m thinking is right

since its a ring game, its very doubtful that no one else has been dealt my ace/flush outs, so my actual outs cant be 13, so is it right to assume couple of my outs r gone, say lets 13-2= 11 and make my judgement on 11 since i should always be ready for the worst case?

or you can say you even picked up a tell from someone preflop who folded that he had an ace. lets say the BB was very hestitate if he should call the raise and he said something like "my kickers no good probably" and he folds, so you can almost assume that he has AT or AJ or something like that, so now you can make it 11-1=10

it would be right to call his all in with 13 outs, but 10 outs? it might be -ev to call (i didnt calculate it, just an assumption)

so should i sometimes ASSUME some of my outs are gone? since some of my outs r PROBABLY gone and since the opponent puts me all in, so i have no fold equility on him, if he just reraises me then i can go all in to try to make him fold but this is not the case

i think there is something wrong with my thinking, can anyone help me with it?

anyway any help would be appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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