lay this down on the turn?

[DpR]

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Isn't AK spades the most likely hand for villian here? or at worst a PP bigger than 10 with a spade? This guy has solid stats and cold called 4 bets pre flop. Doesn't that almost have to be AA, KK, QQ, AKs?

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Yes, this is his range of hands, but almost half of these hands do not have a spade in them. True, he raised the turn, so it's a little more likely that he does have a spade. However, AA and KK with no spades both likely believe they are ahead on the turn and want to charge a spade draw the maximum.

There's only 1 way he can have AKs, but MANY ways he can have an overpair. A rivered straight or set is very likely to be good. A rivered spade isn't good as often as we'd like, but he'll call with a lot more hands than he'll bet, and is unlikely to bluff raise since his hand will almost certainly have some showdown value. Betting and getting called as an underdog is better than checking and calling as an even bigger underdog.

Good luck.
Eric

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So why are you betting a spade again?