Help calculating expected earn

[Mr_J]

"'ve backtested it over the past 6 seasons and it has a win rate of 56.7% over that span. However, if I take the past 10 seasons then it only shows a win rate of 52.8%."

Don't assume you'll hit 56% going forward, you probally won't. What data did you use to form your hypothesis (system)? If you backtested over seperate data that's ok, but if you used the same data then your results are obviously biased.

You can't assume it'll hit 56% going forward.

You're probally fine betting 5% though if you heavily hit bonuses, line shop, low vig and free points. If you don't do these then definately lower the % you're betting.

I don't think you have any idea what you are getting into though. 5% units create huge variance, you have to be a real cool customer. If the money means anything to you then lower your %.