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More fun with variance - monte carlo results
Ok, I whipped up a little monte carlo simulation in java that does the following:
Given the total cost of an STT, payout structure, and %chance of finishing in each of the paid spots, it runs a player through 10,000 STTs. I wrote the program to run 10,000 players through 10,000 STT's and save the data to run stats on. I can easily change any of the variables and re-run it. For the first go round I used: Entry fee: $55 Normal pay outs (250, 150, 100) 12% chance for finishing 1, 2, or 3 (so 36% ITM) This comes out to $5/S&G, or 1/11 (.0909...%) ROI. So, for 10k players playing 10k tournies each, here is what I got. Net Profit: Mean: $49,962 (E is 50K) SD of Net: $8,789 Max Profit: $83,600 Min Profit: $17,100 ROI Mean: 9.08% SD: 1.60% Max: 15.20% Min: 3.11% Max Loss (Before going positive for good) Mean: $709 (just under 13 buy ins) SD: $747 Max: $7,140 (just under 130 buy ins!) Min: $0 (duh) Last STT where player was negative Mean: 291 (!!!) SD: 422 Max: 3,755 (!!!) Min: 0 (again, duh.) As I said, easy enough to change the values and see how different assumptions change things. I probably wont move this to my home computer until tomorrow, but if there are specific runs people want me to do, it takes like 2 min all told to do the run and post process the data. (It takes longer to type it in here. Maybe I will add the stats to the program and have it spit out cut and pastable results.) |
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