Heads up Theory

[dfan]

Jman, you are correct that the fundamental reality is that for a particular action you will win X chips x% of the time, and lose Y chips y% of the time.

In most poker situations we can predict the long term outcome of the random process with the summary statistics like average win/loss or EV.

That is because in most poker situations the outcome of interest (total money or chips won) is a linear metric. If you win 20 bucks you are twice as well off than if you won 10 bucks.

But when the outcome of a process is NOT linear, then EV is like averaging dollars and pesos without converting the currencies first.

You are arguing that the outcome of interest (probability of winning tournament) is not a linear function of your stack size in a HU match. If you are correct then you are also correct in your argument that cEV is not an accurate metric to evaluate the long term outcome of this random process.

Posters who are patronizing you by saying you "clearly don't understand EV" seem to themselves not understand this limitation of EV. It is annoying to me when they do that, so I'm just posting this to let you know that this professor of statistics says you are correct and they are wrong.