My hand against Chris Moneymaker

[Dutch Boyd]

I don't often read 2+2, so sorry that this comes a bit late... I noticed a lot of posts about that particular hand and decided I'd give my thoughts on it.

First off, here's how the hand went down (roughly, as I remember it)... There are I think 15 players left. I have about 850k in front of me and Moneymaker has about 700k... so we're both looking pretty good to make the final table. Sixteenth place pays 65k... it jumps up to 80k when you get to 12th.

So I think there were 7 players at our table. Blinds are about 15k-30k, I think, and there are antes. I was in the cutoff and saw my KQo. I raised a little more than 3x the BB... $100k if I remember right. Moneymaker calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop comes out 942 rainbow. I think about it for a second and decide to check... I know Moneymaker will bet no matter what he has in that spot... a small pair... overcards... an overpair... whatever. I also know that I no longer have the best hand... whatever he called with is sure to beat an unimproved KQ.

So I check and he bets $100k... the same I raised before the flop. I read him for weakness and put him on either a small pair under 99s or an ace. But I figure it's much, much more likely that he has a small pair than an ace... at this stage he wouldn't be calling with an ace hand. If it was ace-rag, he wouldn't play... if it was a big ace, he'd raise preflop. So I think about it for a second and decide the following:

(1) He has a small pair under 99s;

(2) This guy is out of his league, and there is no way he's going to risk busting out of the WSOP in 15th place when he has $500k in chips. No way in hell he'll call a raise. So I decide to raise.

(3) I decide the hand I want to represent is pocket tens, and decide how he would think I'd play that hand in this spot. I decide that raising all-in is probably how he'd think I'd play it, since I'd be worried about overcards but also pretty sure I have the best hand. I knew there was no chance in hell he'd read me for a set.

At this point I want to point out something about the interaction of me staring him down that so many people have commented made me look really week. I agree. I did look weak there, because I didn't care whether or not he thought I was weak or not... that interaction happened in a hand about twenty minutes later where he made a bet on the river for all my chips and I was thinking of calling him down with a pair of fives. I folded... calling would have been right, though, as he showed a busted seven high flush... a stone cold bluff. The actual interaction that took place between us during the KQ v. 33 hand wasn't all that interesting... I checked after about 15 seconds, he raised after about 5, and I reraised all-in after about another 15 seconds... didn't say anything. He thought about the call for about two minutes... got up from his chair and paced a bit... ran his fingers through his hair. Then sat down and said he called, with the same tone of voice he had in his interview about not letting anybody push him around. You all know what happened after that... the board didn't help, I was crippled, and Chris had the lead.

Looking back on the hand, I think it was a mistake to raise all-in. If I had raised 300k, it would have basically been making the same play forcing him to decide whether he's putting all his chips on a pair. But I still think he would have moved all-in on me, and I definitely would have felt a lot dumber calling the last $200k with KQo then making the all-in play myself.

As to whether or not it was a good play, I'll say a couple things. First off, I definitely would not have made the call... and I talked to Amir Vahedi after the hand, and he told me that even if I had turned my cards face up, he wouldn't have called. Second off, I don't think it was a bad call at all. It reminds me a lot of a hypothetical hand that I read on RGP and I've been thinking about for a year... first day, first hand, you're in the BB with AK. Everyone folds to the SB, who raises all-in... while pushing in his stack, he accidently flips over his cards... QJ. Do you call?

Some say yes, some say no... I think the answer depends on what level you're playing at. The correct strategy in bigger no-limit tournaments is not to double up, but rather to get your chips into the pot when you know you're going to be winning it. I was all-in one time before the Moneymaker hand crippled me... it was with AA preflop against KK... and I felt sick about it (and looking back, I made a mistake. I knew he had KK, and should have waited for the flop to make sure my AA held up, since I know if rags come he's putting the chips in anyway). Think about it. You're only 4.5:1 to win. On one hand, that's huge, but string three of those together and you're less than even money to still be in the tournament. It's not a bad beat for aces not to hold up if you have four or five times where you're all-in with them preflop.

So basically, I think when it got down to 15, Chris was one of the better players left... and I think his chances of winning don't increase as much by making the call (even though he's the favorite in the hand) as they go down. I think he still would have been in the top three had he folded that hand... and by calling, 25% of the time he's out of the tourney and people remember him the same way they'll remember Olaf with his call of AK.

Bottom line is tournaments are won by making huge calls for all your chips... they're won by making huge bets when you are confident the other guy isn't calling. I was so confident that he had a tiny pocket pair and there was no way he'd have the balls to call me. So I either underestimated him or overestimated him, and I'm leaning towards underestimating him... regardless it was the biggest mistake I made in that tournament.

Dutch