Hmmm AJo hand

[Shillx]

Nice analysis.

I don't want to suggest anything in my play, but you hit on a lot of the points.

1) When he calls the turn you can get rid of hands like 77.

2) There is a good chance that I have him crushed on the flop. If he has something like KK he will just check behind on the turn and call one on the river, so I lose value by not donking out. He will obviously call me down with KK when I bet out since there is a good chance that I'm bluffing or semi-bluffing.

3) There is also a good chance that he has an ace and is waiting until the river to raise. I feel like he will call (or raise) on the river far more often then he will fold, but I'm still not sure if betting the river is the right play. Obviously it is when he has a big underpair, but it might not when he holds an ace.

4) The river card is not the best in the world for my hand when I'm good, and it is great for me when I'm behind. There is some non-insignificant chance that I made trips on the end and that could change the river play quite a bit here.

Brad

Edit - I would probably play a flush draw very fast on this flop (to try and fold out QQ or something). I don't know if the villian would know that, but my flop check-coldcall will usually be an ace. Of course it would sometimes be a flush draw as well since I am very tough to read when I play the way I was today.