Getting it all in with a draw on the flop (theory post)

[wtfsvi]

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Good post. I think, in general, draws should be played aggressively against players that are either weak or capable of folding big hands. Against most players, they should be played passively.

[/ QUOTE ] Against most small stakes players at least. I'm however not question the value of playing draws aggressively, I'm questioning the value of getting money in on the flop rather than the turn, just because your draw has better equity there. It was to isolate that factor I chose a scenario with 0 folding equity and certainty villain would push any turn. If villain wouldn't push the turn 100% of the time (but still call if we pushed) that would greatly favor calling and if villain would sometimes lay down his overpair on the flop or turn (or sometimes have AK), that would greatly favor pushing. The choice between calling and folding would mostly come down to those two factors weighed against each other (How often will he not push the turn, what will he do in stead, how often will he lay down an overpair on the flop, how often will he lay it down when these and these cards hit the turn, and so on.) I deliberatly left those conciderations out of the scenario though (along with meta-game conciderations) because I wanted to isolate a point: We'll have the benefit of being able to fold some turns, that I showed in the OP, on the call-side of the scale, not the push-side (where I see some people putting it when they give advice).

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Edit: This is a minor violation of the 5/10 rule though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]Not really [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

EDIT: Small error in the OP. He'll have three outs to the boat when the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits. The impact of this is probably close to none-existant though.
EDIT again: Oh yes, that's right, I didn't bother to calculate the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] thing anyway, so the error didn't make my math more right or wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]