Opportunity or Fool's Gold? (K2o)

[justT]

Be forewarned that I’ve been thinking too much about Gigabet’s stack theory. I’m not saying this is or is not a” Gigabet Dilemma” or even that I understand his theory. However, it has caused me to be more conscious of the “playability” of my stack which is what caused me to think during this hand.

A hand from last night’s PP 34K NLH tourney, blinds are 75/150 but are going up after this hand to 100/200, so my stack is ~17BB

converter

UTG (t8265)
UTG+1 (t5055)
UTG+2 (t1600)
MP1 (t585)
MP2 (t525)
MP3 (t195)
CO (t6290)
Button (t2875)
Hero (t3340)
BB : (Villain) (t1457)

Preflop: Shorty is MP1
Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Villain is BB

<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Shorty calls t150, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>

I’ve only been at the table for a couple of orbits, but I have a fairly good read on the players in this hand, especially the short stacks. I didn’t make much of the UTG+1 limp, probably not a monster hand, but if he showed some speed I’d certainly have to re-assess.

Shorty is a player I’ve seen before, and I thought she was solid, but her short stack play here has been horrible. I was almost certain her limp here meant she didn’t have a pair or AK/AQ, but I figured her hand had some promise, Ax didn’t seem right, I put her on a middle suited connector, say 89s.

The interesting player here is Villain. He’s pretty aggressive and he’s steaming, three hands ago his stack was over 6K, but he suffered a couple of tough losses. I really expect a push from him here if his hand showed any promise. I was getting 7:1 odds to complete, but I figured I was just throwing away 75 chips most of the time, especially with UTG+1 still in the pot.

Hero completes, Villain Raises Allin [t1457], UTG+1 folds, Shorty calls

For some reason I didn’t expect UTG+1 to fold. Lots of chips in the pot, two people allin, and I can’t go bust on this hand since the bigstack kindly folded. I slow down to consider the situation, it goes something like this:

My hand is an ugly K2o, but there’s a very good chance neither of the other players are strong. Are my cards live? The 2 is probably live (oh joy!), but I don’t know about the K. If either of them hold a K, I’m really in trouble. It’s unlikely Shorty has a K given her limp preflop, with AK she pushes preflop, with KT-K2 she likely mucks, she might have limped with KQ or KJ but those might have been a push as well.

Pot odds are good at 1.8:1

If I fold my stack I 16BB
If I call and lose I have 9BB
If I call and win I have 27BB

Is the chance to get to 27BB worth the risk of going from 16BB to 9BB?

[Something I didn’t notice at the time was the relative stack sizes. The three big stacks are big enough that they play basically the same against me whether I have 9BB or 16BB but at 27BB my stack would be similar in size to theirs.]

Thoughts?

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">

Hero decides to wait for a better opportunity; the pot odds just aren’t big enough
Hero folds

Villain shows J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Shorty shows Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Board: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain and Shorty split, Hero’s stack dwindles over the next few rounds while waiting for that elusive “better opportunity” to arise. Hero eventually pushes with 77 and busts out ~425th (field of 2200, paying 220) </font>


Thoughts?