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Old 08-17-2005, 01:14 AM
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Default Re: Mathematical Expectation

[ QUOTE ]
If someone bets such a large amount, you have to expect him to have big cards and thus your cards will need to be bigger before they provide you positive EV.

If you put all the cards in line from bad to good, it is obviously not so that the middle card is 0 EV. Against a small raise, something like AT or AJ will be +EV, against a 600 raise in this example, the first times when you do not yet have a read on your opponent, you will need a better hand to expect a +EV. After you seen him move all-in a few times, you increase his range of possible hands and with that, you also increase the range of hands with wich you expect to have +EV.
Than you can call him with any hand that is +EV for you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry man. You're still missing the point. Even if you call with a +EV you still might lose. Say I call the $600 and I am favored, say 3to1 and have a +EV, but he draws out on me. That's the one loss in the 3to1 ratio. Now I win the other 3 times but only make$60 in the 3 hands combined. I still lost -$540, but the EV theory worked perfectly. My favored hand held up 3 times and lost once, just like it was supposed to but the one loss was for much more money.
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