why all the mad swings in 6max?

[sammy_g]

Guy, thanks for the numbers.

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In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).

As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max.

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So if my math is right, a player with the same win rate in a full game and a 6 max game will have 28% larger swings on average. That is a little larger (as expected), but it doesn't seem so extreme and appears to support my point.

One mitigating factor is that a player in a 6 max game might have a higher win rate than he would against the same competition in a full game. I think it is pretty well accepted around here that shorthanded play favors the better players. So the difference in swings in practice might even be less than that 28% percent figure.

Another point I forgot to mention in my previous post is that when people go from 2/4 full -> 5/10 6 max, the swings are of course much larger in terms of dollars, which colors our thinking. When you are winning and losing more dollars, superficially it might seem like you are winning and losing more big bets. Like an optical illusion.

I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.