NL Preflop Question

[DavidC]

EV of folding is zero.
EV of pushing is -$28.2789.

Edit: Crap!
I have some trouble with the following math:

AA = 3 hands
KK = 6 hands
QQ = 3 hands
JJ = 6 hands
TT = 6 hands

purely, chances of having AK:
7(4)/2 + 7(3)/2? No...
7(3.5)/2? No...
7(x)/2? maybe, but what's x? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

x = (4/7)*3 + (3/7)*4?
= 1.71 + 1.71 = 3.42?

This is awfully close to 3.5... is this just a precision error?

Therefore AK = 7(3.42)/2 = 12 hands?

Also, what are the chances of him having AK, given that he could have AA or KK, likewise the chances of him having AA or KK given that he could have AK and that I DO have AQ...

Basically, there's a difference when I crunch out the nubmers manually and when I use pokerstove to do it: it's a small difference though (actual hand distributions vs envelope math version).

Anyways, there's 36 hands, of which, he folds 1/6 of the time, so the ev of pushing becomes:

(1/6)*130 = +$21
(5/6)*((610*0.28151)-300) = (5/6)*(-128) = -106

Therefore the EV of pushing is actually -$85.89 or something like that.

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When you hit an ace or queen on the flop: A87r and Q87r, your equity is 66% and 65% respectively.

If you miss the flop on 872r, your equity is 15%, and you're forced to fold.

This comes out to something like -$53 weighted to missing, and +31 weighted to hitting, so you lose maybe $20 by playing the flop.

I didn't look at flops like AKQs (33% equity) and AT4 (55% equity), but I'm not sure how often those types of flops are going to hit the board.

Suffice to say that I picked some fairly favourable flops to work with here.

So you lose AT LEAST $20 by playing, if I'm not mistaken, maybe more.

I guess folding is the best option.