A leak in my game

[act]

Hi everybody

I just discovered what is probably a leak in my game. I thought i would post it here since others might have the same problem.

It seems i am too weak when somebody has open raised. Let me illustrate it with an example:

blinds 25/50. I am in the bb with pocket fives. I have 820 chips including my blinds. Player on the button (solid but can make moves) open raises to 150 (out of his 1200 stack), sb folds.

I would fold, thinking that in most cases its a coinflip and sometimes im far behind. I think that is a terrible move in most circumstances. Here is why:

Lets assume button raises with AK - A9, KQ, KJ, KT and 66-AA. Further lets assume that if i go all-in he will fold AT, A9, KT, KJ, 66, 77.

He will fold 42 % of his hands. in 35% of the hands i will have app 55 % chance of winning, and in 23 % of the hands i will only have app 20% chance of winning.

if he folds i win 175. If he calls and i win i win 845. If i lose i lose 845. If i fold i lose 50.

Now the EV calculation if i push(discarding split pots etc.):

0.42*175+0.35*(0.55*845-0.45*820)-0.23*(0.2*845 - 0.8*820)=-6.6

If i fold i get -50. A very big difference.

In the unlikely event that he folds nothing to my push its a bad play unless he opens with more hands in which case it might turn positive again.

It supprised me that pushing is usually the best move (at least in a T$ EV sence).