300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're more likely to have a 300 BB downswing than go broke with a 300 BB bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

To go broke with a 300 BB bankroll, you will almost always have to have a downswing >300 BBs. Example: If you win 20 BB when you start, you have to go on a 320 BB downswing to go broke. OTOH, you can never go broke with a downswing < 300 BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is another example that illustrates how likely a 300BB downswing is. Lets say I have a 5% risk of ruin with a 300BB bankroll.

Let also assume that every time I win 100BB, I cash out and round my bankroll down to 300BB.

Each time I do this I start out with a 5% risk of ruin. What happens if I do this 30 times?

The chance of my not going broke each time is .95, so the chance that I don't go broke in all 30 trials is .95 to the 30th power which equals .21.

So there is a 79% chance that I will go broke (and experience a downswing of 300BB or more) during one of the 30 trials. Wow, that is depressing.