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Adjustments in kill games after winning a pot
I play in a B&M 20/40 game that features a full kill when someone wins two pots in a row. If this happens the stakes double to 40/80 for the next pot and the person who caused the kill is forced to post a live kill blind of $40 and still acts in turn in the preflop round.
Obviously posting the kill blind is undesirable, and therefore I should tighten up the next hand if I win a pot, but I am unsure how much to tighten up. First off what is the -EV of having to post the kill blind? I know from my pokertracker online 2/4 stats that my EV from the BB is - .2 BB. I assume my EV from the kill blind is somewhat better than this because I have better position. Although I have to post that blind @ double the stakes, so I'm guessing a reasonable guess of the EV penalty I suffer in the pot that might get me the kill blind is - .15BB * 2 or - .30BB. So how much should I adjust due to the effective additional rake I have to pay if I win this pot. I usually adjust in the following ways, but I have done no math behind this so it is just an intuitive guestimate. I do the following: fold rather than raise KQo and AJo in early position. fold QJo,JTo, KTo, & QTo from late position in an unraised pot. if folded to me in late position, only steal raise with a hand I would raise in middle position. (like this ever happens) Postflop I tend to treat the pot size as 1SB smaller for pot odd calculations and fold in marginal situations. Am I overadjusting or is this about right? It occurs to me that this effective additional rake isn't any bigger than the actual rake in say a 4/8 B&M game (about 1SB) and I don't make these sorts of adjustments in a B&M 4/8 game. hmmm. |
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