Playing at a new level

[astarck]

We all know variance can make life a living hell from time to time. And we also all know that even winning players go through horrendous swings. So I ask you, how many do you play at a new level before you say to yourself "I cannot beat this level at my current level of play."?

The reason I ask is because I have a 15% known ROI at both the 22s and 33s and am trying to move up to the 55s. Through my first 160 55s my roi is hovering right around -6%. If I was an already established player at the 55s I wouldn't be concerned at all, but since I'm new to this level I wonder if I should drop back down or keep on playing. I have suffered swings this bad in both the 22s and 33s, but they came after I had already built up a healthy profit and had determined I was at least somewhat able to beat those levels.

Throughout the last 160 SNGs I have suffered what seems like an endless string of bad beats. This isn't a bad beat post, but the beats do make me think I might just be seeing the bad side to variance right as I try this new level.

So again, how many SNGs and at what ROI before you finally decide you can't take the new level?