Third Down Is the Charm for N.F.L. Turnarounds (NYT - Reg Req.)

[Jack of Arcades]

Article by Aaron Schatz, one of the writers of Pro Football Prospectus. The article is a condensed version of their San Diego Chapter, which explains that teams eventually play the same on third down as they do on first and second downs, and that performance on third downs can be largely attributed to luck.

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