Set of J's

[Post-Oak]

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First off, I pretty much ignore KK here. If he has that, oh well. If the board pairs, he stacks me.


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Agreed. Smoothcalling is not a valid defense against KK anyway.

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The only two hands that I think I can stack against here and be ahead are AsAx AsKx.


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I think villain will occasionally be reraising with the naked As. Some players (usually these wouldn't be referred to as "solid" though), will occasionally take hands like QsQh too far here.

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All other hands I either can't get much more out of or they have me beat.


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Due to the nature of the flop, I still hold that many opponents will call a flop raise with TPTK type hands. Many will also call a flop raise with a hand like QsQx, or even TsTx. They will tend to think that you could be semi-bluffing, or using the scary board to move them off of whatever they raised PF OOP with.

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I'm unlikely to lay my hand down before the river, so if he bets pot, I know I'm likely to face a big bet on the turn and I might as well just get my money in on the flop.


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Agreed.

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But when he bets $30, I realize that I can call and see the turn, and will probably have an easy bet to call on the turn as well.


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Unless one of those cards you don't want to see hits the turn. Or one of those cards he doesn't want to see. So why not raise it on the flop, when you can get him to pay with the hands I mentioned?


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If he has something like red AK, I'll probably see a couple more small bets.


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Unless a scare card falls. Why not start getting his money on the flop? Why wait?

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There's a good chance I'll value raise the river if he bets the turn and river smallish. If the turn or river is a spade, we've kept the pot small so I can call and beat red AK.


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I doubt he would bet with red AK if a spade falls. Earlier you said he would likely interpret a smoothcall of the $30 as a draw to spades. If no spade falls and he was betting into me, I wouldn't reopen the betting by raising the river. I think it makes the hand easier to play if you are raising him before the river instead of calling down his smallish bets on the flop and turn.

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If I pop it to $150 or so here and he calls, we have a $400 pot. What if the turn is a spade now? And he leads? And he checks?


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I would advocate raising to 180 or more on the flop. In the situation you described, there would be 395 in the pot after the flop action. If a spade falls, I would only call if I was getting 4 to 1 implied odds, so he would have to be overbetting the pot for me to fold. Yes, I would fold on the river if the board did not pair and he pushed the last of his chips in (would only be in the neighborhood of $400-500 at that point).

If he checks, that is a more complex situation. I probably check behind, due to the 1 in 5 chance the river will pair and give me a chance to crush him if he hit his hand (with the spade). If the board does not pair, that can be a sticky situation, but you won't be playing for your stack. If he bets huge, then fold. Calling a pot size bet is read dependent. Against a solid player I usually fold there, and that is another reason I prefer to begin the aggressive action earlier.

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If the turn is a blank and he leads pot, what then? Or if he checks and checkraises you?

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Push.

I am looking at it like you should raise the flop because he is likely to call with a variety of inferior hands. Why wait for the turn? If he has nothing on the flop, he is likely already shut down when you smoothcall. So you lose nothing by raising the flop (he'll fold), but make it a little harder on yourself if a spade hits the turn (he could have a hand like 9s9h).

How do you play a baby flush here? The nut flush? The naked A of spade? I guess the answer to these questions could also influence whether you raise or smoothcall. I like to be aggressive in all 3 of those situations (of course I would not always raise with the As).

I was wrong when I said calling the 30 was "beyond terrible", but I still think raising on the flop is the best line. I can't really see you giving anything away by raising. It does not define your hand. You are making money against the same ranges of hands he will call you with after a non-spade turn.

The benefits are that you are charging his draws and overall making the hand easier for you to play. You also charge him for red AK type hands before a scare cards hits and kills your action/freezes YOU up.