I'm no Joe Tall, but...

[shadow29]

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I dont understand this one. Even with 4 outs you are not getting odds to call. calling 2 cold you are only getting 5:1 can you explain?

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At the time I figured that BB had a small flush. I was 100% certain that he had a flush. Like 90% sure he had a flush <J. Button was a complete donkey, he could have pretty much anything here. Including 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x. I figured that I was WA of Button, thus I was only worrying about BB. 7 * 0.9 = 6.3

6.3 + 2 = 8.3 (assuming that Button has an A)
6.3 + 4 = 10.3 (assuming that Button does not have an A or a 4)
6.3 + 0 = 6.3 (assuming that Button has a 4)

There are 3 aces left in the deck.
There are 2 fours left in the deck.

*Here's where my math suckiness comes into play*

Thus, I have 10.3 outs (41/46) times, 8.3 outs (43/46) times and 6.3 outs (44/46) times.

This math might be wrong here. Aaron can help me out. But whatever. When we do a weighted average here we get more than 7 outs.

Getting 5:1 I need a little more than 7 outs to call profitably. Thus, I called.

Note that I didn't do this math then, but rather thought it through intuitively like this:

"I'm almost positive that I'm ahead of Button here. He could have a weak Ace. I'll keep that in mind. BB almost certainly has a flush. But how high? Fairly certain it's low, that's why he waited until the turn so he could hope to force out singleton clubs. Or maybe he was just slowplaying. Either way, I think that my club outs are worth something. But I know I beat him if I catch a Jack or a 4. But if I catch a 4 then any A beats me. Button could have an A. But I think that the times that he doesn't have an A outweigh the times he has an A. I'm also sure to get 2 bets on the river. Thus, I call." (And tell Baronzeus to stfu in the aim box)

Now my thoughts on the river, "Hm well I hit my hand. BB is almost certainly value betting a flush here. I beat BB. If I raise, Button will fold his junk. But if I raise and Button has an A, I'm getting 3-bet and BB will fold and I'll have to fold too. If I call, however, then Button's overcall = BB's call if I raised and Button did not have an A. Ok, I call. Crap. Button folded. But I win. Ship it."

Paxosmotic, hope that is a zeejustin enough analysis for you.

I hope this post helps, too. I think it's one of my better posts. I just wish that I knew how to finish the math that my intuition knew.

And yes, I am a lucksack.