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Old 08-03-2005, 06:34 PM
MustangMarc MustangMarc is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 6
Default Re: Determining if Im getting unlucky or outplayed.

Let me respond to a few points, hopefully with some useful advice.

Having big pairs be a money loser over thousands of hands is a leak. Some of those losses must be coming when you are behind on the turn or flop. In fact, I would say lot of the time that's true.

The hand with the Queens versus the flush draw is an example. For the number of outs the villan has, you are actually an underdog. Any diamond, any Ace, any Nine, makes 14 outs, which puts him slightly ahead with two cards to win. One of your two outs is a diamond, so you'd be in an uncomfortable position if it came on the turn or river. That board is not really friendly for QQ. There are two connected cards that are a danger due to the two pair and the straight draw posibilities, plus there are two to a flush. If anything, it's surprising two people folded. It's OK to bet and even re-raise here, but I think it is also to check since you're out of position. You might get a bet behind you that you can re-raise and get more callers. At worst, you see the flop for free to see if another unfriendly card appears. An unfriendly card did appear in form of an overcard. I would not bet out at this point, and probably just fold to a bet. You got information on the flop that the BB liked his hand. Don't throw away that information, throw away the no-longer-top-pair hand, or just check/call to showdown if there is enough money in the pot to be profitable.

I found what you said here interesting:
[ QUOTE ]
I am finding I'll involve myself maybe 1 out of 50 (sometimes fewer if there is a lot of raising) hands and lose every time. If I do win its only the blinds or a very small pot. When I lose its a monster pot because I have been doing what everyone suggests. 3 betting the draws on as many rounds as I can. Often they are raising thier own draws anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your VP$IP is 2% at times? Bad players play poorly, but they are not stupid. They will notice you are only playing big pairs, which is true if you are folding everything else just because they are betting and raising like usual. They are reading you, because you are too tight. That means they get out of the way when you are out of position, and charging you more than you'd like when you are in position, so you fold. It also means they know all they have to do is beat an over pair, so they bet, raise, and re-raise their flush and straight draws, and probably other hands like two-pair. If the crowd you are with will bet and raise with junk, then you want to pick a few places where you have position and you have a semi-decent hand like ATs that you'd normally throw away if there is a raise and a re-raise ahead of you. Don't play any two cards, but play a few more in the back even though there is action ahead of you, if there is always action ahead of you.

Hope this helps. In the end, this is a game of you against other thinking humans. All the advice in the world can only go so far. You have to out-think your opponents on your own. Don't do something just 'cause a book said to, take the actions you think are the best, while trying to understand why a book or poster said what they said.
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