Turn decision with bottom set against reraise from calling station

bfc · #1 08-03-2005, 08:25 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($55.35)
UTG+2 ($105.90)
MP1 ($184.70)
Hero ($98)
MP3 ($43.40)
CO ($24.84)
Button ($115.05)
SB ($29)
BB ($357.40)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, MP3 calls $2, 2 folds, SB (poster) calls $1.50, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1.

Flop: ($12) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets $1, BB calls $1, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls $1, Hero calls $1, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($16) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $1, BB calls $1, UTG+2 raises to $5, Hero raises to $20, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 raises to $55, Hero?.

I've only just sat down and the only read I have is PT stats which have villain as a calling station (vp$ip 50, AF-T 0.6, (-120)PTBB/100, 180 hands).

The preflop min raise could mean anything (I wouldn't rule out AA, KK, AK, AT, KT, JQ). I could be ahead of two pair, have 10 outs against a straight (other than QdJd), or 1 out against a bigger set. Other funky hands are also possible but I think straight or overset are more likely than hands that I'm beating.

If you call, what's your plan if river is a brick?

Comments on all streets appreciated. I might have reraised preflop if I was CO or button but didn't like the play from MP. I couldn't see a flop raise taking it down and had essentially given up on this pot.