I think this is +EV???

[nightlyraver]

I believe this is +EV, but what do you think?

10 players left in a MTT. Players in places 8-10 all have around 9-11BB's. We are all in the money, but 1st-4th is where the real money is. It's folded to Hero in the SB - he's sitting on 11-ish BB's after posting. Blinds are at 250/500 with an ante of 50 and there is lots of pressure on most stacks. Hero looks down at A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The BB has called possible steal-raises in the past when he had a big stack, but now he has just under 10BB's and has been making many laydowns recently. Hero has been moving in from time to time, but has shown good hands about every time.

Hero is thinking that Villian will not call for all his stack so close to the final table w/o a real good hand (he has even thrown away small pocket pairs in the same situation). Hero moves all-in...

I'm pretty certain this is a +EV move. True, I lose my whole stack almost every time I'm called, since he probably only calls with a big ace or pretty decent pocket pair, but my stack increases by about 20% w/o a fight every other time. I also usually win if I'm called by a hand like KQ.

Is this +EV in the long run? Good push right before the final table?