AA 10/20, simple turn/river decision

[Catt]

I'm a bit skeptical of the call and raise river line in this hand, mainly because I think the range of Villain's possible holding make it pretty unlikely that either (1) he folds to a three-bet getting 10:1 closing the action with a hand he was willing to raise on this turn; or (2) we earn more BBs those times we take this line. If he is on a stone cold bluff or a smallish pocket pair, sure he folds to the turn three-bet; but if he's on a pair of Ks, perhaps a K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], a non-paired FD semi-bluff, etc. he's likely not folding to the turn three-bet and there's a decent chance we miss out on a raise if he ck-cls the river (or ck-folds). It's certainly a viable line, but I think I still favor the three-bet here on the turn given the nature of the board and the action thus far (and I'd favor it more if we didn't hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).