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Steal Attempt Gone Bad
Hand I played last night in a Party $30+3 3-Table Tournament.
Remaining players: 17 Blinds: 50-100 Hero's stack- 2100 Button (hero) dealt 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG+1 call MP call Button (Hero) raise to 500 SB (villain) all-in for 1100 BB fold UTG+1 fold MP fold Hero ? Got to call 600 to win 1900. 1-3.16 odds Insta-call right? Well, if it wasn't for the fact that villain had been playing tight and that he pushed here knowing almost certainly that he was going to get called. So range of hand I put villain on is A-K, A-Q, and AA-88. That's all the hands I see him pushing with, and even 88 and 99 might be out of the question. That's 32 combinations of unpaired holdings and 42 combinations of pairs. Here's the math, somewhat rounded: 32 combos of unpaired cards /74= .43x .41 (avg. probability of winning) x3500 (chips I have if I win) = 617 .43x .59(avg. probability of losing) x1000 (chips I have if I lose)= 254 42 combos of pairs/74= .57x .21 x3500 = 419 .57x .79 x1000 = 450 617+254+419+450= 1740 Calling 1740 Folding 1600 +EV of 140 right? I thought about it for a second or two, but the pots-odds were just too big so at the time it felt like a call was the right play.. Villain turned over JJ and I rivered a straight [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. But whatever, that's besides the point. I'd like some comments on the play and whether or not my calculations are correct...Thanks Andy |
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