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#13
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pushing gains nothing and loses everything in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] You're very wrong. If neither other player has a straight or flush draw it denies them the proper odds to continue. I think we're frequently ahead here and I don't want to give my opponents a free chance to draw out. [/ QUOTE ] Well, limper did have two suited cards, as I correctly presumed. You can't ignore reads in this spot, and that's exactly what you've done. He's a donk, he is likely to call on a flush draw, and if you bet, he raises, and you now can't see the river. Are they really going to be on a flush draw now 3 spades are on the board? Seriously? They've either hit it or have something totally different. [/ QUOTE ] Your logic is flawed. The fact that he plays any 2 cards DOES NOT make it more likely that he has 2 suited card. In fact, if anything it makes it less likely. If this guy is a donk, he could be calling with any piece of this flop and not just a flush draw. How about Ax? How about some piece of the flop with a gutshot? The fact is we weren't given much of a read on this guy other than: a) he plays every hand preflop and b) he took down 2 pots with big bets and no showdowns. We really don't know how he has played post flop other than those 2 bets. Has he called a lot on the flop? If so, than I think that argues even more for a push. Has he typically given up on the flop other than the 2 times he won the pot? If so, then that makes it more likely that he has a flush draw. Given that he's a donk with not much read postflop I think we're ahead here often, we can draw to 4 outs when we're not and we hate giving a free card to opponents on the draw. All that points to a push. |
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