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Old 07-29-2005, 02:12 AM
Tranvisor Tranvisor is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 7
Default AQ Offsuit\'s expectation, A experiment

My friend and I are both rounders in Ohio, we generally frequent $5/$10 home games, as well as charity poker events run on the weekends. Anyway, we decided to make a bet on how much profit AQ offsuit expects to make everytime you get it. I bet half a big bet ($5) and he bet .35 of a big bet ($3.50).

We decided to resolve the bet after 180 trials. Now I know this is likely not a large enough sample size but as Live players we are lucky to see 30 hands an hour. In an effort to settle the bet in a timely fashion we decided on 180.

As for the details of the study, whenever I get AQo I keep exact track of how much money I lose (if I lose) and if I win I take the pot size (minus the bets that came from my stack) and record it. Also if I happen to fold it preflop that does count for the average (gets recorded as a zero win). Oh, and one more thing, if I am sitting at a $10/$20 game I make the appropriate division required to pare the results down to $5/$10 terms (for example :$140 pot minus $70 my bets, then taking the remaining $70 and dividing by two to get the resulting equivalent $5/$10 pot profit = $35)

So guys, two questions. First, what do you think AQo's EV will be in these loose Ohio live games? Second, while we picked 180 trials for brevity, what is the appropriate number of trials for a finding accurate to plus or minus 5%?

As a sidenote, I am currently about 20% through the study, do you guys want me to update this post every 20 or so trials with the new average?
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