Opinions on this satellite bubble push

[Brad F.]

First you say this:
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On both tables, the action was tight and I stole his blinds repeatedly. He also caught me on a continuation-bet bluff around 50 hands before. blinds 150/300 with 50 ante. I have seen him call down with 2nd and 3rd pair, particularly against me.

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And then you say this:
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I check into him. In my experience, he will continuation bet here 100% of the time (whether he hits the flop or not). He usually folds to a re-raise. He bets about 1,500.


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Those two make no sense. You think that he will call down with 2nd or 3rd best pair but he will fold to reraises??

I fold A-9 preflop here. Your only hope at a tight table like this is that he has K-Q, 77 or 88. Otherwise you are in bad shape.

Since you called, and with the hands you put him on you have to get your money in. I don't agree with the 'any two face cards' comment. I don't expect to see K-J or Q-J here if he is as tight (or loose??) as you say he is. I think it's about 50-50 really on the flop whether you are ahead or not without looking at a poker calculator. But a push is definitely better than a check/call.

The fact that there are two stacks lower than you here and five spots get paid argues even more for a fold preflop. Just too marginal of a play here in a satellite.

Brad