Does anyone NOT push this?

[morgan180]

I think its close if the villain is calling with the top 20% of hands – the cEV is there but the ICM is very close.

Out of 10 times:
8 times you will push and they will fold: +2400 cEV
2 times you will push and get called, of those two times you will lose 1340 in chips 51.76% of the time: -694 cEV
So overall your cEV is: +1706

ICM looks close in that if you fold here you still retain roughly 25% of the prize pool, whereas if you push and get called by the top 20 percent on average you are looking at 26.3% of the prize pool. (correct my math if it is wrong)

So while I would push this, I think it is one of those “disasters if you are called” as curtains puts it. It all depends on if he is calling or not.

Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: RU2003 ( $2067 )
Seat 2: StneColdCall ( $2034 )
Seat 7: rocketman73 ( $1340 )
Seat 8: rjb922 ( $2559 )
Trny:14320606 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)

1-
You push they fold
RU2003 2067
StneCold 2334
Rocketman 1340
Rjb922 2559
27.31% of the prize pool

2 – you fold
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 2034
Rocketman 1640
Rjb9222 2559
24.89% of the prize pool

3 – you push get called and win
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 3674
Rocketman 0
Rjb922 2559
36.72% of prize pool

4 – you push get called and lose
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 694
Rocketman 2690
Rjb922 2559
11.39% of prize pool

5- you push and tie
RU2003 2067
Stnecold 2154
Rocket 1490
Rjb922 2559
25.96% of prize pool

If villain will call with top 20%:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.5428 % 42.85% 02.70% { KsJh }
Hand 2: 54.4572 % 51.76% 02.70% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

if you are called 20% of the time:
Win: .4285
Lose: .5176
Tie: .027

.3672*.4285 + .1139*.5176 + .2596*.027 = .1573 + .05895 + .007 = .2235

22.35% of the prize pool*.2 + .2731*.8 = .0447+ .21848 = .263

so 26.3-24.89 = +1.41% of the prize pool