You might hate the way I played this hand

[Henke]

Preflop: I often raise weak limpers with holdings such as QJo in shorthanded games. There is really only one hand I fear the limper might have, KJ. He would probably have raised AJ, AQ and perhaps KQ. OTOH I might be dominating him if he has QT, Q9, Q8, Q7, JT, J9, J8, J7. The callingstation will surely call the pf-raise with any hand but perhaps 32o, which makes it a slight value bet. I wouldn't mind BB folding, and if he calls (which he probably will given the pot size) that's not too bad either, since his hand will often be worse than mine.

With one limper at a full table, this raise would probably be a bad idea, and if the limper played well it would probably be better to call too.

On the flop, no one has shown any strenght. The board is quite uncoordinated, but unfortunately with a flushdraw. Given random hand distribution, my hand is probably only best around 12% of the time, which kinda sux. But, my thinking here is that I would try to get the pot heads up with the calling station. This play is of course not as strong as if he would be to my right instead of my left, but since I might have as much as nine outs (probably around 6 though) I won't loose that much by betting here, to try to get BB and MP out. I think there's a decent chance BB might throw away a hand with an A, 4 or 2, and perhaps even a weak K. MP might throw away a couple of hands that beat mine too.. Also, if BB and MP holds trash hands like T7 they would be correct to call if they knew what i had, but calling would be very tough.

Turn:
The original plan from the flop was to take a free card if I didn't improve. If MP would have folded on the flop, I would have given up the aggression now, and try to check it down UI. However, when I picked up the OESD my thinking was that I won't loose that much if MP has a hand (like KJ) since I still have 8 outs to beat him, but he might just have called one on the flop with lots of hands he might now throw away. This is probably the place where I'm most likely to be wrong, but I only have to improve my chances of winning by 2/13 to make this bet correct. Thats about 15%, which translates to making him fold an A if he has one. Also, I estimated the probability to be checkraised to approximately 0%.

On the river I'm valuebetting every time here for two reasons. One is that there are many worse hands he'll call with (any 2,4,T,A) and the chance of him raising me is very low (probably only A high flush).

<edit>
I made some calculations, assuming that CS won't call a river bet (which is what happened) and assuming that MP indeed has a K and won't fold, I'm loosing about 1/3 bet by betting the turn compared to calling the turn. that means that I only have to improve my chances of winning by 5%, or about once in 20 hands. Is it still wrong?
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