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This was brought to mind by the "fold a favorite" post.
I'm not sure how many players here play Pot Limit Omaha as well as hold 'em, but in my opinion there are times when you flop the nuts, but it may be correct to fold. In Omaha, draws can be so much bigger and two or three hands against you cut into your odds so much, that I've always wondered this question.... When you flop the nut straight in Omaha (say, broadway) and there's a flush draw out there, is it correct to fold to an all-in reraise and call if you are certain one of your opponents has a set and the other has the flush draw? Example: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1092606 pokenum -o qc qs 2d 7d - ac kc 2h 7h - jc td 9s 8d -- ah kh qd Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qd Ah Kh cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 7d 2d 74 11.11 592 88.89 0 0.00 0.111 Ac Kc 7h 2h 334 50.15 328 49.25 4 0.60 0.505 9s Jc Td 8d 254 38.14 408 61.26 4 0.60 0.384 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1092612 pokenum -o qc qs 2d 7d - qh 3h 4c 4s - jc td 9s 8d -- ah kh qd Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qd Ah Kh cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 7d 2d 234 35.14 432 64.86 0 0.00 0.351 4s 4c Qh 3h 216 32.43 450 67.57 0 0.00 0.324 9s Jc Td 8d 216 32.43 450 67.57 0 0.00 0.324 In both of these scenarios you apparently have the worst of it. Say you lead out early in a tourney with the pot, get re-potted twice to put you all in. Since you equity is these types of scenario is even money or worse, it seems as though the correct play is to fold the nuts! What do you guys think? |
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