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Old 07-18-2005, 01:39 PM
Cosimo Cosimo is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 199
Default Am I on a draw or is this a made hand?

TP, weak kicker, nut flush draw. The bet is to my immediate right. Do I raise, with the high probability of getting it heads up, or call to try to keep the blinds in?

UB .5-1, table flop % is about 35% (that's not VPIP, that's total flop %). Villain in this hand has been kinda loose; any ace or high cards, but not medium connectors. I don't think any of these players understand position (except that they should bet from the back if it's checked to them).

I'd like to raise this, but Villain is to my immediate right. If a UB player is tight, he's weak-tight. If I face the blinds with two bets, they're really only going to call if they've got an inside straight draw or two pair, both of which are unlikely. If villain does have an ace, he's going to call down if I reraise him here, and then I have to worry about him having a bigger ace or a weaker ace -- when 1/3rd of the weaker aces beat me, too.

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, Hero ...

I normally call hands like this, and it's one reason why I'm TA-N instead of TA-A. Raise it?
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