Unavoidable bubble burst?

[kamrann]

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I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...


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You are absolutely right, so it's hard to argue. All I can say is that ICM is just a model, it's not perfect. My intuition strongly tells me to fold here. The short stack will obviously go up against one of the three others soon, and my feeling is that you would much rather it was one of the other two than yourself, unless you hold a strong hand. I think when it happens and the big stack is not a good favourite, a lot of equity is being transferred from him to the other two big stacks. So I think I'd rather pass up this even if ICM says it's +$EV, in the hope that one of the other two stacks will go up against him instead.

I know it's sometimes difficult to argue when ICM says something is right, but the bottom line is it's only an approximation, and I'll always go with my instinct when it is strong, regardless of what ICM says. This is such a case.