VP$IP Variance

[Scotch78]

At 5/10 6max my VP$IP was 20.18 over 40,493 hands. I was in the process of loosening my starting requiremens when I moved up, so the last ~25K hands I was over 21%. However, my win rate was under 1 BB/100, so when Party created the 3/6 6max I dropped down.

Slightly before the second change, I tightened up a little in EP, folding hands like KJ and AT, and with the 1/3 blind structure at 3/6 I lost about 1.3% VP$IP in the SB.

After 5,679 hands of 3/6 my VP$IP is 16.68%, and has dropped roughly 1% in the past 1,000 hands. At around 4,500 hands I looked through my hand distribution for 55+, A8s+, A9+, K9s+, KT+, Q9s+, QT+, and JTs, and I was 121 hands short of the expected distribution. So I know that I'm getting dealt [censored], but now I'm curious about variance in VP$IP.

So, can anyone tell me about it, maybe what the odds are of having a -2% swing over 5,000 hands? Thanx in advance!

Scott