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Am I calculating these odds right?
I was in a hold'em game a few minutes ago, and I flopped a flush with my 87 diamonds, and another player flopped a flush with his K3 diamonds. After he finished separating me from my chips, I realized I can't remember the last time I saw two people flop a flush. I've seen flush vs. flush by the river many times, of course, but not often on the flop, if ever.
So I started thinking about the odds of that happening, and it occurred to me that it's basically the same odds as dealing out 7 diamonds in a row, right? We don't know what any of the down cards were, so for all intents and purposes, it's as if they're dealt consecutively. Therefore, the odds would be: (13/52)*(12/51)*(11/50)*(10/49)*(9/48)*(8/47)*(7/46) or (0.25)*(0.23529)*(0.22000)*(0.20408)*(0.18750)*(0. 17021)*(0.15217) or 0.00001 or 1 in 100,000. Do I have that right or am I smoking crack? If I'm smoking crack, what are the true odds against and how do you calculate them? And then the secondary question is, since I read him for a flush based on a pretty accurate tell, how confident to I have to be in my read versus the possibility of a 100,000-to-1 event occurring? |
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