Did I just stumble onto something important?

[cartman]

<font color="blue">If we value bet the river optimally, shouldn't our "WSD% when we Bet/Raised/Check-Raised the River" multiplied by our "W$SD% when we Bet/Raised/Check-Raised the River" = 50%?</font>

Is this a statistical way to tell whether we are value betting enough on the river?

My river aggression has always been extremely low (&lt;1.5). I have been trying to figure out where I need to bet more, raise more, or fold more.

When you click the "more detail" button on the main PokerTracker page and get all of your stats, the section right after the Agression Factors and right before the "Folded to River Bet" gives our results (Ww/oSD%, Fold%, WSD%, W$SD%) for when we Bet/Raised/Check-raised each street and for when we Just Called.

When I looked at my River section, I found that when I Bet/Raised/Check-raised, my WSD%(went to showdown%) was 72.29 and my W$SD%(won $ at showdown) was 79.88. Multiplying these together I get 57.75%. Doesn't this mean that, of the times I bet the river and got called, I won 57.75%? That would mean that I am playing way too conservatively on the river, right? After all, assuming we are heads up, shouldn't we bet the river whenever we think that we will win the pot at least 50% of the times that we get called?

This of course neglects bluffing and inducing bluffs, and I don't know how they factor in. But it seems to me that if the product of these two numbers is more than 50%, then a player isn't value betting enough. If the product is lower than 50%, then he is value betting too much.

What do you guys think?


Cartman