#20
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Re: Would a flop call be too loose here?
[ QUOTE ]
Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate. I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here. [/ QUOTE ] Actually on the flop I took pretty long (had like 8 seconds left on the clock iirc) to calculate everything. I came up with exactly what you posted (I didnt want to prejudice anyone in my initial post and let them come up with their own discounting), I figured myself for around breakeven odds on the flop and the implied odds pushed it to a easy call instead of a "bad call". But for some reason I kept thinking about the hand and wanted to double check myself. |
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