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A couple steps i need help with. first, it is said the flush comes in 35% of the time. where is this number figured because i keep messing it up. i thought it was: (9/47)+(9/46)= 38.7% ?
okay so the example then is: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG limps, folds to MP4, <font color="red">MP4 raises</font>, fold to Hero, Hero calls, UTG calls. Flop 6.5SB: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG checks, <font color="red">MP4 bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero..??</font> IF UTG calls after us, we're still putting in 33% of the money on a 35% draw in a small pot. If UTG folds, now we're putting in 50% of the money. If the turn is say the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and UTG folded, now you're getting 1:5.5 i'm just curious as i'm told that if you never fold a 4-flush draw, it isn't a major leak. An additional question would be if it is HU against a habitual blind stealer first in from LP. just fix the above situation and remove UTG altogether. i don't think call a raise from MP4 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a problem, but maybe it is. the same flop, now what? |
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