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Blind defense against over aggro (long)
I've been running into a guy that I'm struggling with
determining the right line against his blind steals. I could simply switch tables, but really want to figure out how to deal with this to improve my game, as higher limits no doubt are full of these guys. Basically it's one of those, I know he's trying to steal, he knows I know it, he knows I'm raising to defend, and it turns into a game of chicken. Profile is: high frequency of raising when folded to on the button, then basically betting or raising any bet until it's capped or I fold, on every street. In other words, he will not back down, no matter what. He does the same thing from the SB, except he limps in, then bets/raises the same way. I don't have a huge amount of hands against him, but so far it looks like any pp, 2 face cards, Ax, Kx, and maybe even Qx suited or not, gets raised from the button. In other words, almost any two. The main problem is that reads are impossible because post flop gets played the same no matter what his hand is. My thinking is it's one of those way ahead/way behind situations, and you can never really know which one you are. Based upon that I would think call with any Ax, pp etc. pflop. Bet/cap with any piece of the flop? Or simply call down with any piece of the board, raise/cap with overpairs? Or do I simply run pokerstove, see what hands I am a X%+ favorite over his expected range, and raise/cap it all the way down? How do I account for the fact that I may only be in this situation a few hundred times total, so short term variance could easily kill any theoretical edge I might have? I'm thinking you should be able to calculate, based upon card frequency, what range of hands I need to go to war with that have enough of an edge to compensate for blinds stolen and the times they lose.. Any help would be appreciated. |
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