Quiz: test your EV instinct

[coltrane]

thanks for all the responses guys....this was an actual 5/5 hand I played, and my first instinct was that I should call because if I hit I knew I'd get his stack (in the actual hand, I had him covered)....so I did, and I did.....but after the session I wanted to figure out the actual EV and found that I had underestimated the implications of redraws.....it was a -EV play and not really close (like some of you said)......it was interesting to me because often I think it is the case in big bet to make a call with a draw on the flop, but then either dump it on the turn or hit the draw on the turn and have the call be +EV because of implied odds....I was surprised how much redraws affected the math....

now, if there was more money left to bet and I could've made another value bet on the river - that changes things....or, if I could add AK or some other hands to his possible range - that also changes things.....also, as RBK said, tilt factor is an issue.....the guy in this hand was a total nit, so if you asked me if I would pay 30 bucks just to see him lose with a set of aces and spew chips the rest of the night - I might've gladly obliged......plus, as ML4L said, "hitting draws is fun"..... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

now, as far as actual math, I got different answers than some of you....here is my math - I think it's correct and exact, but perhaps someone can double-check it.....




If he doesn't have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
8 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 4400

so:
(4400 - 5550) / 45 = -$25.56 EV


If he does have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
6 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 3300 (no heart on turn)
+
1 * [((28 * 925) + (16 * -725)) / 44] = 325 (7h on turn)
+
1 * [((27 * 925) + (17 * -725)) / 44] = 287.5 (Qh on turn)
= 3912.5

so:
(3912.5 - 5550) / 45 = -$36.39 EV

and finally, it's 2/3 likely that he has the Ah, so:
(-36.39 - 36.39 - 25.56) / 3 = -$32.78 Total EV