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If he always folds when missed..
OK. Let's say you have an opponent who will always fold the flop HU unless he hits at least a pair or a gutshot. (Seems plenty of these exist..)
You hit a pair ~30% of the time, right? So I'm guessing he would hit >= pair/gutshot about 50%. ? So let's take the cases where you're OOP against this person, and playing heads up. Seems like you should see every flop, and bet out every time, right? On those times that you miss, half the time he folds, and half the time he calls. Even if he wins every time he calls, which he won't, you break even on those plays, meaning you get to see the flop for free every time. When he folds PF you win, and when he hits and you hit bigger, you should get paid off nicely. (And you'll have a pretty good idea when you hit bigger, knowing his calling requirements.) Is this sound? It seems like it.. |
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