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#9
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Thanks for the reply. I'm convinced that capping the flop is pointless.
[ QUOTE ] I think you overplayed the TTs and wouldnt cap the flop. I would think the BB would call you without reraising with small/med pair, siuted connectors, suited cards, or even slow play strong hands. Based on his re-raising you I dont think he is on a draw. Dont think there is equity to do that heads up thus I think the flop hit him in the face. He either has the str8 or a set. [/ QUOTE ] I think most players will 3-bet the flop with two pair, also. And occasionally an aggressive-yet-somewhat-rational player might do that with A9, although I grant that's pretty remote. So most likely I'm putting money in with the worse of it, and depending on the likelihood of different draws coming in, folding or calling the 3-bet is probably the correct course of action. Psychologically speaking, I think I was motivated to cap by being in, "He's defending his blind so he may not have much," mode, and not switching into, "Oops, he's made a hand" mode. I lean toward calling because I have a good draw against two pair and a poor draw against the straight or a set. The clincher is that folding to a reraise will encourage him to take shots at me. [ QUOTE ] I call his re-raise hope for a 3rd 10 and if not fold. [/ QUOTE ] While I do things like this in the heat of battle, reflecting upon it now I think the only justification for call-and-fold-on-the-turn-unless-a-10-comes is the consideration I just mentioned, not getting bluff-raised on future turns. Some mutually countervailing considerations: <ul type="square">[*]The odds for this particular draw, ONLY at a ten, are pretty bad -- about 9 small bets in the pot, so 9:1 on a 22:1 shot at an overset. [*]However, if you throw in the board pairing and counterfeiting two pair, it's about an 8:1 shot hence worth pursuing. [*]But tens up nor a set of tens are wins if he has a straight. [*]Throw in the possibility of a total bluff (Harrington says minimum 10% at NL; this isn't NL but there are compulsive bluffers everywhere).[/list] I think it's probably worth staying to the turn, but just barely. And if the turn doesn't pair the board, should I throw the overpair away? Anyway, thanks to everyone, and especially to PJM1206 whose post I've dissected. I'll post the rest of the action atop the thread. |
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