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This is a 10+R Turbo to the Sunday 215, there are about 60 people left, 22 qualifiers
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (8 handed) converter SB (t9265) BB (t14408) UTG (t7365) Hero (t9025) MP1 (t10200) MP2 (t18320) CO (t8647) Button (t14445) Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3500</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls t2900, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: (t6925) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t5450 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t5450. Turn: (t17825) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: (t17825) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: t17825 These numbers arent quite right, there was 8800 in the pot after the flop and 19700 in the pot after we moved in. So, I dont find anything wrong with my play, as soon as he checked on the flop, I instantly put him on a weak A and had no problem taking the coin flip, however, after it was done something dawned on me. My opponent checked the flop which leaves me with the ability to check behind and attempt to catch a card for free. I felt that if I checked behind that he would move in on the turn with his weak A putting me on a missed flop, even if my nut card came off the deck, so that means that i have a chance to see the turn for free. So I ran some numbers If i push and get called on the flop, which i assumed would happen, i have 47.374% equity which is 9332.68T$ in Equity If i check behind and fold on the turn if i miss (assuming their is 100% chance my opponent pushes the turn no matter what card comes off) that puts me at 26.6% to win 19700 73.3% to fold with 5450 which is 9250T$ in Equity So, the question is, how much is survival worth, obviously the check and fold guarantees me to stay in the tournament, even though i will have a very short stack, 1 double up and im right back to avg stack, so is survival at this stage, with 40 spots to go worth enough to make the check behind play the more preferred one, or is it just a tossup? |
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