Daily Hand Post: play along in a marginal situation

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm getting 8:1 on a call. I don't have to be good that often for this call to be correct. On the turn, since I have good position, I can make a correct decision based on the action on the turn and keep myself from getting trapped, even if I hit a bigger hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, first of all you are not really getting 8:1. If the showdown occurred after the flop then this is an easy call. While your pot odds are 8:1, your effective odds are much worse.

Maybe I'm just not very good postflop, but I am not sure our position helps us that much. Say the turn is the Td. BB bets, one call and one fold, to you closing the action. Now what do we do? Okay, we call. River is 9c, BB bets, other player folds, we call. So we end up getting 7:2.5 on our call down. Will our hand be good often enough for this to show a profit? Possibly just slightly given the atrocius play. What about overcalling the river, though? If BB bets and our MP calls, do we overcall? We are likely beat, but will we see AJ in BBs hand and 33 in MPs hand often enough to warrant an overcall? Probably not, but I dunno.

I think the flop call might be right, but only because I assume the opponents are so bad that they might be calling with A2 here. It seems very marginal, and I don't think folding is all that bad. And with certain reads, I might fold instead.