From 4185 to broke in 2 hands.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]


***** Hand History for Game 2279344893 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13491655 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 28, 22:06:27 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mystraised ( $4185 )
Seat 4: msnuts3 ( $1700 )
Seat 8: RoyalCrap ( $1375 )
Seat 10: Mulperi ( $2740 )
Trny:13491655 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ 5h 3s ]
RoyalCrap folds.
Mulperi folds.
Mystraised is all-In [3935]
msnuts3 is all-In [1200]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 8s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]


[/ QUOTE ]

First, I think you probably need to post the previous 5 or more hands. How many hands in the bubble play had you raised? Let's assume your image will drive the guy to call with top 35% of hands. Let's assume those hands will be an average of a 65/35 to your 5 3. You are expected to lose 1,105 if he calls. 65% of the time you will win the $750 pot. This would be a positive EV of approx 100 chips.

Is that worth it when it comes to expected winnings in dollars? Probably not.