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#11
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I guess I've had a little success in similar situations, so that is why I don't think that Scott is out of line here.
The flop, 982 two tone. This is one of those flops that might be categorized as 'Something for everyone, yet nothing for everyone'. It is possible that someone has a 9 or an 8 in their hand, but it is more likely that a lot of playable hands have two overcards, possibly a straight draw, and maybe a flush draw. The button raised preflop on the button, against two limpers. There is a very wide range of hands that he might have, and a lot of them are going to be overcards on this flop. Some of those hands will be big draws, and if Scott bets out on the flop, those big draw hands will have a combination value/free card raise on the flop, and it will be hard to determine exactly where anyone is on this hand. We have a four handed pot, on the flop, and if either the BB or MP made a pair of 8s or 9s on the flop, they have a very fragile hand, and it would probably be correct for them to either bet out, and try and trap the players in between against the threat of a raise from the button, or check and raise, and try and make draws more expensive. Both of these players check called the flop bets, so I think it would be a good assumption that they likely have some cards in that morass of overcard/straight/flush draws that are out there. He has three opponents, but they all likely hold similar undefined hands, so it is almost like playing one opponent. When the turn card comes, it certainly didn't help any of those hands, and if Scott was in the lead on the flop he probably is close to a 50% favorite to win this hand. It also certainly didn't help his hand from anyone else's point of view. His bet here, clearly is a value bet, and he is representing a pair of nines. When the button responds by calling, you can pretty well expect that he has overcards, and when MP calls, you have confirmation that his hand is probably in that range also. River. That card didn't help the overcard hands and I think that his hand is very likely good, and now the question is how to play the river. I like betting here, because if he checks, the button might bet his unimproved Ace, and then MP, might call, and then you have the tough decision to overcall on the river with third pair. If you bet, they have to make the decision to call you, and they could either error, by calling with an unimproved ace, or folding a pair of sixes or sevens. I agree that his play on this hand was thin, but I also think that he played poker on this hand, and took a hand that didn't look like a winner, and got a little extra value out of it. A side note. While I was writing this, I limped in late position second in, with a small pocket pair, ended up playing against the blinds and the limper, flopped a set and managed to extract 12.5 small bets from my opponents. So I don't think that limping in this position is necessarily -ev. |
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