A math problem.

[squeek12]

I posted this in the probability forum, but it doesn't seem like anyone reads it. This could be impossible to answer, but I'll throw it out there.

I play in a terrible 3/6 game at Harrah's in New Orleans. It's so juicy it's hard to explain. Anyway, I was just wondering what percentage of sessions should I expect to bust out given the following parameters.

I buy in for $100

I consider myself TAG, and at this horrible game I think I could make at least 6BB/100 hands.

The variation has to be pretty large in this game as 5-7 people see flops on average.

My VPIP in this game is probably ~20%.

Is there any way to compute or estimate how often I will lose all of my buy-in in say a 5 hr. session???