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#9
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i don't buy your argument that aggressive play of QQ-AA should lead to 9th-10th place finishes at least 6% of the time.
at the lower buyins (22 down) i think it's safe to say that at least 2 people have busted out by the start of level 4. so let's look at the probability of busting out in levels 1-3 because of pushing QQ-AA. you have roughly a 75% chance of not even seeing QQ to AA by the end of level 3. the other 25% of the time, let's say you shove it immediately. IF you get called every time you would lose, i don't know, a third of the time maybe? in that case, you've busted roughly 9% of the time. BUT this assumes that your shove gets called every time, which clearly isn't going to happen, and it ignores the fact that you may get called by someone with a smaller stack and when you lose you don't bust out. even if you get called 1/2 the time, you're still talking about 4-5% bust out rate assuming that you are covered every time you're called. anyway, i think that you're overestimating the number of times pushing a high pair will knock you out of the tournament. also, last but not least, it is often correct to fold JJ to a reraise preflop. your post seemed to suggest that you think JJ should be played like QQ-AA. |
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