Help Sarge - Top Two - Ahead or Behind?

[Sarge85]

I made a mistake in thinking.

Here’s the long and short of the hand.

Pacific $2/$4 game – generally uber loose. On the flop and beyond it can become very LAG. People will “value” bet I guess with all sorts of strange holdings – capping with only top pair in multiway pots, on very very coordinated boards. Anyway –

I post my blind in the CO and happily get dealt KJo. Could be worse.

There is only one limper, so I decide to raise. (Reasonable hand, want the supreme position, want one or both blinds out)

Well like a great plan – Button comes along, SB folds, BB calls – as does the limper.

Flop comes a happy Kx Jx 6x rainbow/suits non factor.

BB checks, Limper Bets, I call, Button calls, BB calls. (Maybe I just should have raised here, but I wanted to get the button and BB to contribute more.) I’m planning on popping the turn. This is really a rookie mistake and the more I look at it, the more foolish I feel about not raising.

Turn comes a Tx

BB comes out firing, limper calls, I raise ---

Now. Here is where my thinking goes sideways. Obviously BB could have AQ and hit his equivalent of a gut shot. I also thought he could just have easily turned a smaller two pair. – KT- JT.

I convince myself that there are more ways for our opponent to have KT and JT – than AQ - so I popped it

However when I look back I see

KT – 6 Ways
JT – 6 Ways

AQ – 16 ways.

SO if I narrow hands down as such – if I would have know AQ had more possibilities than both KT and JT – I shouldn’t have raised.

Keep in mind I haven’t even accounted for the possibility that he has a set.

Does this seem like really weak tight thinking ?
What am I missing here?
Do you all have these automemorized?

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]